> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://news.coldhardsats.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # The weekly Bitcoin brief, issue #2 - URL: https://news.coldhardsats.com/the-weekly-bitcoin-brief-issue-2/ - Published: 2026-10-25T20:31:34.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-25T20:31:34.000Z - Description: Bitcoin's fixed supply, how to buy bitcoin, regular buys versus trying to time the market, and the Power-Law. - Author: Cold Hard Sats - Tags: weekly brief *Week ending Oct 25, 2026.* A lot of new readers this week asked the basics: what makes bitcoin special, how people buy it, when to buy it, and how the Bitcoin Power Law works. This issue opens with those ideas, then the usual week in numbers, a Feature on monetary repression, the What if? regular-buy tracker, FUD Corner, and Security Corner on a storefront breach that leaked shipping data (not recovery words). Follow [@coldhardsatshq](https://x.com/coldhardsatshq) on X. Past issues: [Issue #1](https://news.coldhardsats.com/the-weekly-bitcoin-brief-issue-1/). **In this issue:** | ● [**Start here**](https://coldhardsats.com/start-simple?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=toc-start-here) | ● [**FUD Corner**](https://coldhardsats.com/fud?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=toc-fud-corner) | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | ● [**Price vs. trend**](https://coldhardsats.com/power-law?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=toc-price-vs-trend) | ● [**Security**](https://coldhardsats.com/security-status?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=toc-security) | | ● [**What if?**](https://coldhardsats.com/calculators/dca?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=toc-what-if) | ● [**Technical**](https://coldhardsats.com/guides/common-scams?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=toc-technical) | | ● [**Network**](https://coldhardsats.com/supply?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=toc-network) | ● [**Term of the week**](https://coldhardsats.com/glossary?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=toc-term-of-the-week) | | ● [**News**](https://coldhardsats.com/this-week?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=toc-news) | ● [**Videos**](https://coldhardsats.com/videos?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=toc-videos) | | ● [**Adoption**](https://coldhardsats.com/adoption?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=toc-adoption) | ● [**Ask us**](https://coldhardsats.com/questions?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=toc-ask-us) | | ● [**Feature**](https://coldhardsats.com/monetary-repression?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=toc-feature) | | ## Start here: what makes Bitcoin special, how to buy it, when to buy it, and the Power-Law Four short ideas for anyone who just signed up. [**What makes bitcoin special**](https://coldhardsats.com/start-simple?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=start-here-special)**.** Bitcoin is digital money you can send to anyone online without a bank in the middle\[21\]. No company or government runs the network, and the [issuance schedule](https://coldhardsats.com/supply?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=start-here-supply) is fixed in open source code: just under 21 million bitcoin, ever\[4\]\[22\]. Newcomers often ask why someone cannot simply raise that cap. The schedule lives in open source code that independent computers on the network (nodes) each check for themselves. Changing it to print more would need those nodes to adopt different rules, and it is not in their interest to dilute the money they already hold. A group that tried would end up on a separate network, not the bitcoin everyone else is running. Think about that for a moment. When you hold the keys yourself, your bitcoin does not depend on a bank, a broker, or a company keeping a promise to pay you. That is what people mean by no counterparty risk: your claim is not sitting on someone else's balance sheet. Physical gold can sit outside someone else's books when you hold it yourself too, but it is heavy, hard to move, and easy to stop at a checkpoint. [Watch the short airport clip](https://coldhardsats.com/videos?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=start-here-airport#video-everywhere-but-nowhere): a bag of gold gets stopped while a traveler who memorized their recovery words walks through. Anyone can run software that checks the rules and the history of the bitcoin network for themselves from a home computer. With [your own keys](https://coldhardsats.com/guides/why-self-custody?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=start-here-keys), no app has to hold your bitcoin for you\[23\], and you can literally be your own bank. You can't do that as easily with a house or any other fungible, liquid asset class. Keep in mind, big price swings are normal for a relatively new asset class, so volatility is still expected. Historically, volatility has been coming down as the market has matured, but bitcoin holders need to be comfortable with price swings. If you buy bitcoin today, the price may go down in the near term. In Coin Metrics daily closes since July 2010, every four-year hold has ended with a positive return\[2\]. That is history, not a forecast that the next four years will look the same. [**How people buy it.**](https://coldhardsats.com/buy) Buying bitcoin is straightforward. In the U.S., pick a [licensed app](https://coldhardsats.com/buy?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=start-here-exchanges) that lets you buy bitcoin, complete its identity checks (also known as KYC), buy any amount you choose, a few dollars or much more, then [withdraw to a wallet where you hold the keys](https://coldhardsats.com/course/module-12?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=start-here-hw-lesson)\[24\]. Selling is the same path in reverse: send your bitcoin back to the app if it is in your own wallet, sell it for dollars, then withdraw the dollars to your bank account. The same identity checks apply\[24\]. Bitcoin is also an extremely liquid asset, which means it is easy to turn into cash. The total value of all bitcoin (its market cap) was about $1.6 trillion on Oct 24\[2\], and tens of billions of dollars of bitcoin change hands across spot markets on a typical recent day\[27\]. So everyday-size buys and sells usually find a buyer or seller right away. That is not a promise about the price you get, especially during a fast crash. For a first buy of a couple hundred dollars, it is not imperative to pull funds off the exchange immediately. Start learning how to safely secure your funds in a [hardware wallet](https://coldhardsats.com/course/module-12?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=start-here-hw-wallets) if you ever intend to store more than about $500 to $1,000\. Leaving coins on an exchange means the exchange holds the keys and you hold a claim. The [how-to-buy guide](https://coldhardsats.com/buy?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=start-here-buy-inline) compares major US apps and fee pages, in no particular order, with no affiliate links\[24\]. [**When to buy.**](https://coldhardsats.com/calculators/dca) Nobody can time the market. Many long-term holders use a [regular dollar-cost average schedule](https://coldhardsats.com/calculators/dca?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=start-here-dca-inline) where they invest the same dollar amount on a fixed cadence through all the price volatility\[25\]. Scroll down to the What if? card for a hypothetical bitcoin investment we started last week in issue #1: a hypothetical $1,000 first buy, then $100 added each week as we publish this newsletter. [**The power-law channel as history.**](https://giovannisantostasi.medium.com/btc-trolololo-model-revisited-still-valid-today-is-really-a-power-law-in-disguise-da11b58cf5de) Giovanni Santostasi's [Bitcoin Power Law](https://coldhardsats.com/power-law?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=start-here-powerlaw-inline) fits past price against days since the first block and draws a long-run trend line, with price often moving in a channel around that line\[1\]. It describes where price has sat relative to that trend in the past. It is not a prediction that the channel will hold, and it is not a signal to buy because price is below trend\[1\]\[26\]. Models like this speak to long history. They do not name a day to click buy. We show the chart so you can see where this week's Coin Metrics close sits versus that long-run historical trend line: far below, near, or above as history, not as a trade tip. The frost chart in Price vs. trend below shows this week's reading with Coin Metrics prices\[2\]. [Start with Bitcoin, the simple version](https://coldhardsats.com/start-simple?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=start-here-basics) Also useful this week: [How to buy bitcoin](https://coldhardsats.com/buy?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=start-here-buy) · [Regular-buying calculator (DCA)](https://coldhardsats.com/calculators/dca?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=start-here-dca) · [Power-law model](https://coldhardsats.com/power-law?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=start-here-powerlaw) ## Price vs. trend | 📈 | ****$80,699, about 53% below trend. Far below trend by that model (8th percentile historically).** | | -- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | [![Bitcoin vs. the Bitcoin Power Law model (Giovanni Santostasi), Oct 24, 2026](https://storage.ghost.io/c/fb/71/fb71a686-b53b-4a40-84e6-4ea2e1795d1f/content/images/2026/10/powerlaw-2026-10-24.png)](https://coldhardsats.com/power-law?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=price) **Model: Giovanni Santostasi, Bitcoin Power Law* *\[1\]* *. Price data: Coin Metrics Community* *\[2\]* *. Chart: Cold Hard Sats.* Bitcoin closed Oct 24 at $80,699 by Coin Metrics' count, down from $81,269 on Oct 17, the close used in issue #1\[2\]. Santostasi's model puts the Oct 24 trend near $170,000, so price sits at 0.47x trend. Price has been this far or further below trend on about 8% of days since July 2010\[2\]\[1\].\* [See the power law chart](https://coldhardsats.com/power-law?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=price) | 📊 | ****What if? $1,000 to start, $100 a week**Picture $1,000 put into bitcoin at issue #1's price of $81,269 (Coin Metrics close, Oct 17, 2026), then $100 more this week at the Oct 24 close of $80,699\[2\]. Together that comes to about 0.0135 BTC, at an average price of about $81,217 per bitcoin.†† Each issue adds another $100 at that week's Coin Metrics close and updates the totals. That cadence is only an illustration of a [regular schedule](https://coldhardsats.com/calculators/dca?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=whatif-dca) (see Start here), not a plan to copy, not advice, and not a recommendation. Nobody is buying. It leaves out fees, spreads and taxes. Past performance doesn't predict future results. | | -- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | This issue (hypothetical) | | | ------------------------- | ------- | | Total put in | $1,100 | | BTC | 0.0135 | | Average price | $81,217 | | Would be worth | $1,093 | | Change | −0.6% | ## Network The Network is the bitcoin peer network: computers around the world that check and record transactions into blocks about every 10 minutes. [Watch how a block gets built](https://coldhardsats.com/videos/how-a-block-gets-built?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=network-how-block) for a short walkthrough. - [**Block height:**](https://mempool.space/) 973,091\[3\] - [**Next halving:**](https://coldhardsats.com/supply?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=network) block 1,050,000, 76,909 blocks away. Around March 18, 2028 (\~509 days).† - [**Block subsidy:**](https://coldhardsats.com/supply?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=network) 3.125 BTC\[4\] - [**Hashrate:**](https://mempool.space/graphs/mining/hashrate-difficulty) about 1,064 EH/s, mempool.space's current estimate\[5\] - [**Difficulty:**](https://mempool.space/graphs/mining/hashrate-difficulty) about 140.6 trillion. The next adjustment comes in 637 blocks (around Oct 29) and is estimated at +4.9%, after +5.9% last time\[6\] - [**Supply issued:**](https://coldhardsats.com/supply?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=network) about 20.1 million BTC, roughly 95.7% of a total that is capped at just under 21 million, and it stays that way because nodes will not accept a rule change that dilutes their own coins.‡ - [**Fees are near the floor:**](https://mempool.space/) 1–2 sat/vB on Sunday morning\[7\]. A cheap window to move coins off an exchange to a wallet whose keys you hold. [See the supply schedule](https://coldhardsats.com/supply?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=network) ## This week in Bitcoin - [**The Fed meets Oct 27–28.**](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), the Fed group that sets the federal funds rate and the broader policy stance, has its next scheduled decision Tuesday–Wednesday\[8\]. Rate decisions and the statement can move how attractive cash and bonds look versus holding bitcoin, which is why this lands next to our Feature on monetary repression. Markets will watch the statement and the press conference. - [**Spot bitcoin funds flipped back to inflows.**](https://farside.co.uk/btc/) By Farside's count, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs took in a net $301.2 million over Oct 19–23 after two red weeks, even with a $635.6 million outflow on Oct 22\[9\]. Dollar flows into spot bitcoin ETFs are one measure of whether regulated funds are attracting or losing money that week. They are not the same as coins leaving the network. A green week after red weeks is a flow fact, not a price forecast. - [**CME called bitcoin a maturing store of value.**](https://x.com/coldhardsatshq/status/2114155656265793835) CME Group is a major U.S. derivatives exchange that lists bitcoin futures and options. It wrote that bitcoin's protocol rarely changes, and contrasted that with chains that upgrade on a regular schedule\[10\]. That is an institutional venue treating bitcoin as a long-lived ruleset; stable rules are the point for long savers. We covered the same idea here: [CME on bitcoin's protocol](https://x.com/coldhardsatshq/status/2114155656265793835). ## Bitcoin adoption watch - [**Strategy still reports 848,517 BTC.**](https://assets.contentstack.io/v3/assets/bltf8d808d9b8cebd37/blt075438553ed3641e/6ad5860b04e8526be47d2cab/form-8-k%5F10-19-2026.pdf) Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is a public software company that holds a large bitcoin treasury on its balance sheet. Its Oct 19 Form 8-K, a required SEC filing when it buys more, said it bought 267 BTC between Oct 12 and Oct 18 for $22.1 million (about $82,900 each), bringing holdings to 848,517 BTC as of Oct 18\[11\]. - [**IBIT held about $65.9 billion.**](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf) IBIT is BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF: a fund that holds bitcoin so ordinary brokerage accounts can get price exposure. That is the same as trusting a third party to hold your bitcoin: you own shares in the fund, not keys you control. It reported net assets of about $65.9 billion as of Oct 23\[12\]. Large net assets mean a lot of regulated money is parked in bitcoin exposure; that is one adoption signal (Wall Street products), not self-custody. - [**Weekly ETF flow turned green.**](https://farside.co.uk/btc/) Farside's Oct 19–23 total was +$301.2 million. Cumulative net flows since launch remain about +$57.3 billion\[9\]. More on adoption → [coldhardsats.com/adoption](https://coldhardsats.com/adoption?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=adoption) ## Feature: monetary repression, the quiet way debts shrink When a government owes more than it can comfortably repay, it has a few paths out: grow the economy faster than the debt, raise taxes or cut spending, restructure or write down what it owes, or quietly erode the real value of that debt. Hard write-downs and sharp austerity are painful and public. For governments that print their own money, the quieter path is often the least costly for the people writing the rules: hold interest rates below inflation, steer savings into bonds and Treasuries, and make it hard to move money elsewhere. Economists call that financial repression (many writers say [monetary repression](https://coldhardsats.com/monetary-repression?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=feature-inline) for the same idea)\[13\]. Edward Shaw and Ronald McKinnon named the pattern in the 1970s. Carmen Reinhart and M. Belen Sbrancia later called it "a subtle type of debt restructuring": captive buyers for government debt, rate caps, capital controls, and negative real rates that erode what savers hold\[13\]. After World War II, binding deposit-rate ceilings and inflation above those rates helped shrink war debts in real terms\[13\]. Softer versions still show up in bank rules that favor government bonds\[13\]. Why it belongs next to a Fed week: rate decisions and inflation are the dials that decide whether cash and bonds keep their purchasing power. Bitcoin's [fixed issuance schedule](https://coldhardsats.com/supply?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=feature-supply) sits outside that dial. That is a design fact, not a price call. [Read the full monetary repression page](https://coldhardsats.com/monetary-repression?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=feature) ## FUD Corner: "It dipped under $81,000, so bitcoin is finished" | 🔍 | ****The claim:** A close near $80,700 and a huge single-day ETF outflow mean the buyers are gone for good.****The facts:** Coin Metrics' Oct 24 close was $80,699\[2\]. Farside still shows about +$57.3 billion in cumulative net flows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs since January 2024, and the same week that included the $635.6 million Oct 22 outflow finished net positive by $301.2 million\[9\]. Flows measure dollars moving through funds, not coins leaving the network, which kept producing blocks all week\[3\]. Price has spent long stretches this far below the [power-law trend](https://coldhardsats.com/power-law?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=fud-powerlaw) before\[1\]\[2\].\* | | -- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | [Read our take on "bitcoin is dead" headlines](https://coldhardsats.com/fud?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=fud#dead) ## Security Corner [**Keystone's Shopify store leaked customer shipping data.**](https://x.com/KeystoneWallet/status/2114054080754770137) On Oct 24, Keystone said it detected unauthorized access to its official website on Oct 20\. After checking API activity with Shopify, it confirmed on Oct 23 that a third party obtained customer shipping information\[14\]. Exposed: names, contact details, shipping addresses, and order details (items and prices). Not exposed: payment card or bank details, recovery words, private keys, or wallet passwords\[14\]. Keystone says it blocked access, fixed the vulnerability, opened an investigation, and is emailing affected customers. It has not published how many buyers were hit or the exact root cause\[14\]. [**What that means for coins.**](https://x.com/KeystoneWallet/status/2114054080754770137) A leaked shipping address does not move bitcoin. Coins move when someone can sign with your cryptographic key. The usual way people back up that key is a list of recovery words; if someone gets those words, they can move the coins. A Keystone shipping leak is not a recovery-words leak. Keystone warned that scammers may phone, text, email or mail as "Keystone," offering refunds, replacement devices or "fixes" for an order or address\[14\]. None of that is a reason to type recovery words into a website or into a device you did not order\[14\]. [**Not on our reviewed wallet list.**](https://coldhardsats.com/security-status) Keystone is an air-gapped hardware wallet maker. It does not appear on Cold Hard Sats' [wallet comparisons](https://coldhardsats.com/wallets?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=security-wallets) or [security-status](https://coldhardsats.com/security-status?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=security-status-inline) cards (those cover wallets we track, such as BitBox, Trezor, COLDCARD and Ledger)\[15\]\[16\]. This note is about the storefront breach and the scam pattern, not a product review. [**Same week, same rule.**](https://coldhardsats.com/security-status) Storefront data is a different door from wallet firmware, but the ask is the same: anyone who wants your [recovery words](https://coldhardsats.com/guides/seed-phrase-backup?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=security-seed) is running a scam. Our short take on one set of recovery words and many wallets: [Endless wallets / passphrase](https://x.com/coldhardsatshq/status/2114353967031628131). | 🔒 | ****One thing to do this week:** If you bought from Keystone, expect phishing that names your real order. Type keyst.one yourself; don't click unexpected links\[14\]. Recovery words stay offline, on the device, never in a browser. | | -- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | [See the wallet security watch](https://coldhardsats.com/security-status?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=security) ## Technical Corner: storefront data is not your recovery words Your hardware wallet can be [air-gapped](https://coldhardsats.com/glossary?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=technical-airgap#air-gapped): it never joins Wi-Fi or Bluetooth, and you move transactions with QR codes or a microSD card instead\[17\]. The online shop that sold you the device is a normal website. It stores names, carts, and shipping addresses. That shop data can leak even when your wallet never shared your recovery words. Keystone's disclosure draws that line in public: order and shipping data were exposed; recovery words were not\[14\]. The inverse mistake showed up in a Moonshots clip this month: treating "break SHA-256" as a way to spend Satoshi's coins. Spending needs a private-key signature. SHA-256 is a hash function, a different lock\[18\]. We unpacked that here: [Chamath, SHA-256, and the wrong lock](https://x.com/coldhardsatshq/status/2114184315856932927). [Learn to spot common bitcoin scams](https://coldhardsats.com/guides/common-scams?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=technical) ## Term of the week: passphrase A passphrase is an optional extra phrase you invent on top of your 12 or 24 recovery words. Same words plus a different passphrase open a different wallet\[19\]. It is not a backup of your recovery words. Lose the passphrase and that wallet is gone, even if you still have the words. Scammers love "urgent" emails that ask you to "re-enter" words or a passphrase on a website. Real wallet makers never need that. [Look up passphrase in the glossary](https://coldhardsats.com/glossary?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=term#passphrase) ## This week's video picks *Picked from the latest uploads on the Cold Hard Sats videos page, Oct 19–25\. Titles as shown there.*¶ - [**Interviews & Podcasts:**](https://coldhardsats.com/videos) [Is Bitcoin Losing Its Miners to AI? | Nacho Pauls](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGVbMZkSxOc) by Swan Bitcoin, Oct 24\[20\]. - [**Interviews & Podcasts:**](https://coldhardsats.com/videos) [Bitcoin Is Under Attack | Rob Hamilton](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7f4bt%5FmnAQk) by What Bitcoin Did, Oct 22\[20\]. - [**News & Markets:**](https://coldhardsats.com/videos) [97% Of Bitcoin’s Price Is Explained By The Power Law | Santostasi & Perrenod](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgZZjXMilkE) by Bitcoin Magazine, Oct 24\[20\]. Our own short videos are on the same page. [See all the latest videos](https://coldhardsats.com/videos?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=videos) ## Ask us anything | ❓ | ****Keystone says my shipping address leaked. Do I need to move my bitcoin?** Not for the address alone. Keystone says recovery words and private keys were not exposed\[14\]. Moving coins matters if your recovery words were typed into a phishing site or into a device you did not order. Then set up a new wallet with new words and move everything to it. A leaked name and street address means watch for fake "refund" and "replacement device" messages, not an automatic on-chain emergency. [How to back up your recovery words](https://coldhardsats.com/guides/seed-phrase-backup?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=ask) | | - | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Got a question? Reply to this email. We read every reply. More from Cold Hard Sats: [@coldhardsatshq](https://x.com/coldhardsatshq) on X · [Issue #1](https://news.coldhardsats.com/the-weekly-bitcoin-brief-issue-1/) · [news.coldhardsats.com](https://news.coldhardsats.com/) **Ready for more?** [Take the free course](https://coldhardsats.com/course?utm%5Fsource=newsletter&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=brief-issue2&utm%5Fcontent=start-here) That's issue #2\. Keep your keys close and your recovery words offline. See you next week. — Cold Hard Sats Learn Bitcoin, one block at a time. [coldhardsats.com](https://coldhardsats.com) ### Notes \* Model: price = 10⁻¹⁷ × (days since Jan 3, 2009)^5.83; Oct 24 is day 6,503\[1\]. The verdict ranks the Oct 24 distance from trend among all days since July 18, 2010 (Coin Metrics daily prices through Oct 24, 2026, 5,943 days, accessed Oct 25, 2026, 11:53 AM ET\[2\]). Trend ≈ $170,002; ratio ≈ 0.475\. About 474 of 5,943 days (8.0%) closed at this distance or further below trend. The power law models past data. It is not a prediction; price can stay far from trend for years, and the relationship could break. † 76,909 blocks × 572.348 s average block time in the current difficulty period\[6\] ÷ 86,400 s/day ≈ 509.5 days. Rough, since block times vary. Network data (block height, hashrate, difficulty, fees) from mempool.space, Oct 25, 2026, 11:52 AM ET (America/New\_York). ‡ From the subsidy schedule\[4\]: 19,687,500 BTC for blocks 0–839,999, plus 3.125 BTC × 133,092 blocks since (840,000–973,091). An upper bound, since it counts lost or unspendable coins. Issued supply rounded to "about 20.1 million" in the Network section. †† Illustration method (hypothetical; excludes fees, spreads and taxes): issue #1 assumes $1,000 bought at the Coin Metrics Community daily PriceUSD close for Oct 17, 2026, $81,268.94 (0.01230482 BTC). Issue #2 (this week) assumes $100 at the Oct 24, 2026 close, $80,699.31\[2\]: 0.00123917 BTC. BTC held = 0.01354399 BTC (about 1,354,399 sats); average price = $1,100 ÷ 0.01354399 ≈ $81,217 per BTC; value = 0.01354399 × $80,699.31 = $1,092.99 (shown as $1,093); % change = ($1,092.99 ÷ $1,100 − 1) × 100 = −0.6%. No Oct 18 phantom buy. Accessed Oct 25, 2026, 11:53 AM ET. ¶ Titles, channels and dates as shown on coldhardsats.com/videos, feed refreshed Oct 25, 2026, 11:52 AM ET. ### Sources 1. Giovanni Santostasi, "BTC Trolololo model revisited (still valid today) is really a Power Law in disguise," Medium, January 2024\. 2. Coin Metrics, "Community API: BTC PriceUSD, daily," Jul 18, 2010 – Oct 24, 2026, accessed Oct 25, 2026, 11:53 AM ET. 3. mempool.space, "Block tip height API," accessed Oct 25, 2026, 11:52 AM ET (America/New\_York). 4. Bitcoin Core, "validation.cpp (GetBlockSubsidy)," GitHub. 5. mempool.space, "Mining hashrate API (1 week)," accessed Oct 25, 2026, 11:52 AM ET (America/New\_York). 6. mempool.space, "Difficulty adjustment API," accessed Oct 25, 2026, 11:52 AM ET (America/New\_York). 7. mempool.space, "Recommended fees API," accessed Oct 25, 2026, 11:52 AM ET (America/New\_York). 8. Federal Reserve, "Meeting calendars and information" (2026 FOMC meetings). 9. Farside Investors, "Bitcoin ETF Flow – All Data," accessed Oct 25, 2026 (daily rows Oct 19–23, 2026; cumulative total $57,251M). 10. CME Group, "Trading Relative Value in Crypto: The Case for Ether/Bitcoin Ratio Futures," 2026 (bitcoin's protocol changes infrequently; bitcoin functions primarily as a decentralized store of value). https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/2026/trading-relative-value-in-crypto.html · CHS note: 11. Strategy Inc, Form 8-K, Oct 19, 2026\. 12. iShares, "iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT)," fund page, net assets as of Oct 23, 2026\. 13. Cold Hard Sats, "Monetary repression," last checked Oct 17, 2026 (cites Reinhart & Sbrancia and related primary papers). 14. Keystone Hardware Wallet (@KeystoneWallet), disclosure on X, Oct 24, 2026, 1:59 PM ET. 15. Cold Hard Sats, "Wallet security alerts / security status," accessed Oct 25, 2026 (no Keystone card). 16. Cold Hard Sats, "Wallets compared," accessed Oct 25, 2026 (no Keystone listing). 17. Cold Hard Sats, "Glossary: Air-gapped." 18. Cold Hard Sats (@coldhardsatshq), "AI does not spend Satoshi's coins by breaking SHA-256," Oct 24, 2026 (ET). 19. Cold Hard Sats, "Glossary: Passphrase." 20. Cold Hard Sats, "Latest Bitcoin videos," feed refreshed Oct 25, 2026, 11:52 AM ET. 21. Satoshi Nakamoto, "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System," Oct 31, 2008\. 22. Cold Hard Sats, "Bitcoin supply schedule," last checked Oct 15, 2026 (issuance from Bitcoin Core GetBlockSubsidy / 21M cap). 23. Cold Hard Sats, "Why self-custody matters," last checked Oct 15, 2026\. 24. Cold Hard Sats, "How to buy bitcoin," checked Oct 17, 2026 (US readers; no affiliate links; not a recommendation). 25. Cold Hard Sats, "Regular-buying calculator (DCA)," accessed Oct 25, 2026 (educational backtester; fees/taxes not included). 26. Cold Hard Sats, "Bitcoin power law chart and trend model," accessed Oct 25, 2026 (Santostasi model; describes the past; not a forecast; not investment advice). 27. CoinGecko, "Bitcoin (BTC) market data," accessed Oct 25, 2026 (24h spot volume varies; last 7 days roughly $13 billion to $38 billion, median about $26 billion).